Poly Capacity Expand Rapidly POY Is Bullish
Author: Aug 05, 2011 15:38
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In the first half of 2011, POY,DTY,FDY product mostly keep the same price trend, but when it comes into the second quarter, with the boost of a big profit margin, enterprises concentricity put FDY into operation, which makes FDY deviate from POY and DTY products.
The bottom price of the first half of 2011 is basically at 13100CNY/t, while the bottom price for DTY15D is 14500-14600CNY/t, the low point of FDY68D is apparently different from the previous two. It kicked the bottom of the first half of year in later May, which is around 14300CNY/t. The peak price for the above three is 14900CNY/t, 16300CNY/t, 17800CNY/t respectively and the time occurred in the middle term of March, later February, and later March. Poly fiber profit margin is usually bigger of the industry chain and it is not exceptional this year. Although FDY product is shocked by new capacity, poly filament enterprises still have outstanding ability on market information and profit making. In the first half of year, poly filament exportation keeps increasing, for the main reason is that it oversea market further recovered. According to data, the total exportation of poly filament fiber from January to May is 476.7 thousand ton, increased by 108.2 thousand ton, year on year, the increase amount is 29.36%. Moreover, for RMB appreciation, and labor cost increase dramatically, some trade orders are transferred to Southeast Asia area, like India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and etc. For the limited poly filament fiber production capacity, China goods is still competitive. But the pressure caused by RMB appreciation exists from beginning to end. In the first half of year, poly filament fiber production capacity expansion is rapid, altogether there are 1620 thousand ton new capacity put into production. By the end of July, poly filament production capacity in China is 22405 thousand ton. From January to June, poly filament out put amount to 8120 thousand ton, increased 7.69%, year on year. In the second half year, poly filament production capacity expansion will go on, still there will be many production device put into operation. New investment on production device will continue the situation in the first half of year. For the downstream elasticizer device increased notably this year, POY increment speed is slow than elasticizer device, thus the marker supply and need demand is more advantage to POY enterprises. On poly feedstock, for years, PX shows dull sale in the third quarter, in addition with the high operation rate of PX device, the market need some time to absorb stock, and it is estimated that PX price aftermarket will continue downward. PTA price will also be curbed. Moreover, PTA enterprise centrality stop to check and repair, in the supply increase in the short term has been settled. MEG supply is still in short. In addition, capital is still a key factor for bulk goods, which is mainly determined by the national policy. |
Editor: Candy From: 168Tex.com
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