PTA Price is Expected to Rise
Author: Sep 21, 2011 16:45
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In the current bearish atmosphere, PTA price rise trend slowed down again, but based on strong fundamentals, future rise can still be expected, it is expected that the PTA rise space will open after a short break.
Cost Continue to Force
The news of Fujia 700,000 tons PX plant shutdown pushed Asia PTA price onto $1,600/T. It is reported that Fujia will supply to the market after about one year, and its contract customers are mainly domestic PTA manufacturers. CNOOC Huizhou refinery fire in July led to its aromatics plant shutdown, resulting in 300,000 tons PX production losses.
PTA new capacity mainly concentrated from June to September and PX has no new capacity into production in the second half of the year. The PX devices shutdown and repair at home and abroad in September, and unexpected stop, making an already tight supply is expected to aggravate, so PTA manufacturers will face a tough raw material shortage in the future. China is likely to increase PX international market purchases which lead to the PX price increase, and the cost will push PTA price up. PTA Supply will be also Tight
The settlement price of domestic PTA producers in August is mainly 10,150 Yuan/Ton, which increased 700 Yuan/Ton compared to July, and the listing price in September is 10,600 Yuan/Ton, which is significantly higher than the settlement price in August, indicating the market is more optimistic to PTA.
PTA manufacturers’ optimism is based not only on the basis of increasing raw materials price, but also on PTA recent tight supply, and the stock price will increase continuously. Since August, many devices of Ningbo Taihua, Ningbo Yisheng, Zhuhai BP, and Jiangyin Hanbang stopped temporarily, and many domestic PTA devices have maintenance plans in September and October. PTA tight supply in the domestic market is aggravated and it strongly supports the PTA price. In addition, the current warehouse receipts and effective forecast in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is lower than 2000 pieces, which is a historic low point and even unable to meet the contract delivery needs in recent months. PTA warehouse receipts will be canceled by the end of September and the amount of warehouse receipts is difficult to grow in a higher degree, while the unreasonable future and spot price difference due to tight supply of spot goods is not conducive to the formation of warehouse receipts. Therefore, current warehouse receipts at low price have no pressure to spot price, but also reflect a tight supply situation in the market. Polyester Price Increased Based on Stability
Although the terminal market is troubled by multiple factors such as limited electricity, stock pressure, and tight supply stress problems, the current follow-up intensity is not strong. However, with the arrival of traditional consumption peak period "Golden September and Silver October", polyester price increased based on stability and the main price rose apparently. Among which the polyester market maintain the upward trend, especially the amount of FDY increase apparently and the price increased 200-400 Yuan/Ton, and polyester staple fiber price also rose to 13,200-13,350 Yuan/Ton.
The current inventory of polyester products remained at a relatively low level, especially pushed by the recent downstream rigid demand, the stocks continued to decrease slightly. No pressure on the overall polyester stock, the selling prices can be moderately promoted when products are hot sales, then the cost passed more smoothly. In addition to a part of hot products, the overall polyester business profits remain a low level, the drop price trend is not strong. It supports the PTA price in a certain extent.
Concern about the Terminal Demand and Macroeconomic Factors
Terminal textile industry is always in downturn, and it must suppress the PTA up space in the future. The terminal demand and the macroeconomic environment will be two negative factors for the rise of PTA price. National Statistics Bureau announced the August CPI data, although it is lower than the date in first two months, but its fell down mainly due to the tail factor influence, the inflationary pressures is not been eased fundamentally, and domestic monetary policy is difficult to relax substantially. In external market, the U.S. non-agricultural employment data shocked the global financial markets, the intervention of Swiss Central Bank in currency markets caused the DXY increased dramatically, making commodities under pressure and negative news get together in Europe. The pace of global economic recovery stagnated, and the market avoid risk mood is spreading. Under the situation of international economy in turmoil, recovery of the domestic textile industry is also more and more difficult. The negative factors such as production costs increased and RMB appreciation, the difficult to increase export orders in a short-term, coupled with financial problems, it is difficult to boost consumption confidence and textile enterprises operating under big pressure. In summary, under the strong basic guidance, PTA price is expected to rise in the future, it is estimated that under the circumstance of good macro economy, the PTA price is expected to 11,500 Yuan/Ton in the future. |
Editor: leila From: 168Tex.com
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