Three Features of PTA Industry
Author: Sep 22, 2011 14:01
|
PTA is mainly used for chemical fiber production, which is a key textile feedstock. PTA industry chain is long, its upstream PX supply and downstream PET supply, its demand condition and also its market condition will play direct roles on PTA supply and demand. With the rapid development of PTA industry, it has stepped into a new phase of its supply and demand situation, and it is featured in the following three aspects:
Firstly, for the centralized capacity release, China PTA supply and demand relation may be changeover.
Global PTA market competition focal point is in Asia, while Asian focal point is in China. Classify by development scale and its speed, 2011and 2006 is the rapid development phase of PTA industry. The yearly output in 2006 is 9450 thousand ton. After PTA futures come into the market, the industry gradually stepped into its mature development period. By the end of 2010, PTA total output is15.58 million ton. With the rapid development, China PTA output has surpassed that of Korea, America, ranking at the No. 1 PTA manufacturer country. By the end of 2010, Asian PTA output takes up 83% of the total world output, with China output takes a share that over one third of the Asian output, and moreover, the percentage will be further enlarged.
PTA production capacity increase fast, with import stock reduced year by year. In 2006, PTA capacity increased by 60%, output reached 9.45 million ton. In the following year, production capacity grew steadily. But it stepped into a rapid expansion phase again when it comes into 2011, its growth rate reaches 31%, and it is expected to over 20million ton by the end of the year. PTA device operation rate is high for its sharply expanded capacity. The motivation for the expansion is mainly due to a strong demand of polyester products and the total PET device capacity is higher than PTA capacity. From 2003 to 2005, China PTA device operation rate is over 90%. In 2006, for the over supply of PTA capacity, its operation rate lowered down, and in the following years, the operation rate is around 80%. In 2010, PTA device operation rate again jumped over 90% until July 2011, China PTA devices had kept a high operation rate. Stock amount in PTA plants or merchandiser or downstream poly plants stays low.
In the recent years, even the sharply expanded PTA capacity, and high operation rate has not been able to meet China’ PTA demand, we still need to import PTA by large. But importation independency has gradually reduced from 50% in 2006 to 31% in 2010. From 2006-2010, China PTA yearly importation is 6 million -7 million on average. In the first half of the year, the importation is 2.613million ton, which reduced 6%, comparing year on year. It is mainly because that from the year on, China PTA capacity will step into a centralize release phase.
Although PTA production enters into a rapid expansion period again, PTA will encounter an over supply situation, and we estimate that its importation will still take a certain percentage due to the high end poly plants used to employ imported PTA as its feedstock, and moreover, imported PTA can meet the needs of import financing that will lower down financial cost.
If the newly capacity can put into production accordingly in 2012 and 2013, then there will be 9 million ton of new capacity in 2012, and 7.3 million new capacity in 2013. During the centralize capacity release, it will bring about some influences, that will bring down operation rate, from the current 95% to 80%, and it will also bring about a certain shock to its supply. PTA industry is likely to come into the final stage of its prosperous cycle. PTA prosperous degree is mainly based on its upstream PX supply and the demand from downstream PET industry.
Secondly, China PTA feedstock supply tightens for PX capacity release lags behind.
China PTA importation independency stays high for the slow PX capacity expansion. With respect to domestic PTA capacity and new capacity expansion pace, PX capacity increases slowly that is not able to meet the demand of PTA production demand. From 2003-2006, China PX capacity growth rate is around 10%, in 2007, the growth rate increased to 33%, while in 2008, for the influence of economy crisis, the growth rate fallback again, in 2009, China PX capacity centralize released for the economy recovery that year, the growth rate mounted up to 63%, in 2010, there is no newly PX device put into production, while in 2011, there is only 1 million ton capacity released by Sinopec urumqi. Now, China PX capacity is 8.26 million ton. In 2007, PX device operation was high, while in 2008 and 2009, the operation fall back to some extent, and the rate bounced back in 2010. PX device is some kind of refinery device, thus it needs turnaround every year, moreover, it is assembled with some other devices, therefore, its operation rate is not only influenced by the market demand, but also influenced by its turnaround and device failure.
In China PX importation independency is relatively higher than that of PTA. With new PTA capacity put into production, PX importation will be further enlarged. Since 2003, China PX importation increased year by year. Importation takes 40% of the market demand. China’s PX importation origins are mainly Japan and Korea. In 2010, China PX net importation is 3.317 million ton, among which, importation from Japan takes the most part, then Korea. Importation from the two countries takes 50% of the total PX importation. Therefore, PX production condition in Japan and Korea will play an important role on China’s PX price.
With new PTA devices put into production one by one, PX supply is tightened, and its importation independency is further increased. In 2010, there is 1 million PX capacity put into production by Sinopec Urumqi, and in the coming two years, there will be still few new PX capacity put into production, thus PX supply will be further tightened, and its price will be firmer, as a result, PTA production cost will boost up.
Thirdly, China PET steadily expanded, PTA demand growth keeps stable.
China PET product is in great demand, and its capacity expansion has not completed. Before 2005, China PET capacity expanded fast. In 2006, China PET capacity continues to expand, although the increase amount is enlarged, its growth rate is slowed down. As is estimated that, in 2011, China PET new capacity is 6 million ton, polymerizing capacity is 32 million ton. In the future, PET capacity increase fields are PET bottle chips, PET membrane, and industry PET filament. It is a big developmental phase of PET industry in 2011, with a great demand, it will bring about a rapid capacity expansion. New PET programs are planned to carry out in the year, by the end of 2011, China polymerizing capacity will reach 32 million ton.
With the expansion of PTA capacity, PTA industry has stepped into its final prosperous period. In the future, PTA capacity will be centralized released. PTA industry chain prosperity will be transferred to both upstream and downstream industry chain, and PX advantage will stand out due to its slow development. In addition, downstream PET plants have expanded into the upstream, some rich PET manufactures has expanded their businesses to PTA chain, while some even expanded to PX chain. In the future, business expansion will be popular, for single business will suffer from more loss than an integrative business that from PX-PTA-PET, and of course the latter can keep more market competitiveness.
|
Editor: Candy From: 168Tex.com
Most Read