RMB Appreciation Speed Up Negative Factor of Textile Industry Trails Off
Author: Nov 03, 2011 08:47
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168tex News: 25th Oct, the middle price of RMB against dollar is 6.3425, hitting a new peak of the exchange rate. In the face of repeated refresh, what will it bring about to the stock market? How to cope with the influence of RMB appreciation? An analyst have given us an explanation on these questions.
RMB appreciation is accelerated to the top, and it will not always appreciate.
Many people may think, in the process of dollar exchange, RMB is always appreciating. Some people even doubt whether RMB appreciation will follow the same disastrous road as Japanese Yen. But to my humble opinion, there is no need to worry; there is no possibility of economic crisis. After all, a country’s economy is not trifling matter, easily ending up with a collapse. And if market sources believe RMB is negative, isn’t the top catch up the actual realization of the negative factors. On the contrary, it is a good beginning.
She also pointed out that since exchange rate reform, RMB has continuous appreciate for 7 years, on the base of which, the following up appreciation will be a short course. But if measured in months, it is still in the period of accelerated top chasing status.
When asked about whether RMB against dollar upgrade too fast, she pointed out, only from the view of RMB against dollar, it is one-sided. Because it is related to some local political factors. But in compare with the global economies, now RMB appreciation is tending to be stable. From the macro point of view, the future RMB appreciation room is not big and the forecast of a sharp appreciation will be weakened.
Influence of RMB appreciation to textile industry
Tanke said, RMB appreciation is a negative factor to the textile and garment industry, which curbed exportation, and in a short term, export commodity price will be boosted up and its competitiveness among the international market will be weakened.
See from a long run, for the influence of labor wage and land price and also factors like that, our exportation will be greatly reduced. Secondly, due to an internal structural transformation, to consumption and service type, export oriented enterprises will be greatly compressed. In the long run, RMB appreciation will be slowed down or even depreciate.
She once again pointed out that the appreciation will mainly make the influence to the big export or import enterprises. Small investors will have more difficulty in estimating the global environment. But some non-periodic steady consumer stocks can be taken as reference.
When asked about the positive aspects that the appreciation brought about, Tanke said, raw material or assembly parts enterprises may benefit from that, including papermaking (paper pulp import), steel (ironstone import), automobile (crude oil import), chemical fiber and plastic (feedstock), aviation (air material), high class fabric import and etc.
Meanwhile, she said, for different companies, there should be different analysis. It depends on the buyer’s dependence on export and meanwhile, the invest logic and the property of textile industry and garment industry is different.
At last, Tanke pointed out, as far as now, RMB has appreciated for such a long time, and its future appreciation anticipation is weakening. See from the current situation, the overall negative factor of textile industry is weakening.
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Editor: Candy From: 168Tex.com
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